Friday, December 19, 2014

The Real Deal on the $20 PayBase Price Floor

A lot of people are getting quite excited for PayCoin's $20 price floor to start coming into effect, and I admit I'm one of them. However, as I was thinking about it yesterday, it finally all came together for me. You see, in order for your XPY to be worth $20 at PayBase, you have to be verified at PayBase. That's not a huge problem, but it does represent a sort of valve that GAW/PayBase can freely manipulate to control the flow of coins. Remember the verification levels:
  • Tier 1: You can only buy XPY with BTC.
  • Tier 2: You can buy XPY with fiat, and trade up to $500 XPY for BTC per week.
  • Tier 3: You can buy a lot of XPY with fiat, or trade up to $2500 XPY for BTC per week.
  • Tier 4: You can buy $75K of XPY per week, or trade up to $5000 XPY for BTC/fiat. (I'm assuming you can't trade $5000 XPY for BTC and another $5000 XPY for fiat, but this isn't explicitly stated anywhere.)
I won't bother with the VIP tier, as that's not for most of us, but what you now need to consider is that verifications take time. At best, I'd expect 2-3 days to get verified (that's what it took for verification at Coinbase when I did it), but all GAW has to do to slow down the rate at which people can sell XPY at $20 is take longer. Heck, they probably don't even need to artificially slow it down, unless it's 100% automated, as they will likely have a queue of thousands of people waiting to get verified. And the higher verifications can't be fully automated -- someone has to actually look at your documents to verify that they say what they're supposed to say, and probably do some additional steps as well to ensure nothing is faked.

So, to more clearly state it, all GAW needs to do to prevent having to spend up to $250 million to buy all the existing XPY at $20 each is to not have so many verified users that such a case is even possible. Realistically, I think we might see one or two thousand people verified per week, which could mean $1 million per week to stabilize at $20 on PayBase. If people are also buying at $20 or more, of course verifications can then speed up. I'd also expect each tier of verification to take time, so the second tier only allows $500 per week of selling on PayBase and that's where it will start. Tier 3 allows five times that much to be sold, but it might take another week or more to have your public records verified. Tier 4 inherently requires at least 30 days to reach, and possibly longer as your government IDs are verified.

Long story short (too late!), if you're expecting the price of XPY to jump to $20+ at all of the other exchanges when PayBase comes online, I don't think that's going to happen. If you're looking to buy XPY at $6 on the other exchanges and then sell it at $20 on PayBase, that should still happen but only in limited volume. I'm not saying you shouldn't go out and buy XPY for $6 of course (I bought some at $10 and still feel okay with that move), but if you are intending to make a quick buck next week by doing so then you just need to realize that you'll need to be patient. Long-term I do expect PayBase to continue buying at $20 and eventually that will become the price floor at the exchanges, but this is why Josh even states that they will "start bringing in the $20 floor over time".

Also worth nothing again is that potentially a huge chunk of all PayCoins will be going into staking in HashStakers, HashStaker Primes, Prime Controllers, and Orion Controllers. I'm not sure how many HashStakers exist, but it's probably in the millions. What that means is that of the 12.5 million XPY, probably less than half are up for sale. And on a similar note, I bet VIP verifications are going to be put ahead of many of the other verifications, as those are the people likely to buy XPY rather than sell it.

Note that I posted these thoughts over at HashTalk as well, with my second account there as the first was banned, so it will be interesting to see if I get banned again or not. I'm hopeful that the user moderation has taken a turn for the better, but I haven't posted anything much over there and this sort of content is might ruffle some feathers and get me some downvotes. Hopefully not, but if I get "voted off the island" again I'm not going back. LOL

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