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Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Paybase Delay, Paycoin Investment Opportunity

If you missed it, the launch of Paybase has been postponed until Monday, December 22. The reasoning is pretty sound: launching Paycoin on Friday meant that when there were a few issues and the network stalled, many people were gone for the weekend and it took a lot more effort to get the ship righted. So, with the stall pushing the end of the PoW phase out by half a day or so, that would mean if Paybase launched right at the end of the PoW phase then it would be kicking off Saturday morning. Rather than deal with a weekend again, GAW is choosing to launch Paybase on Monday (though what time specifically isn't actually clear).

This sort of goes without saying, but with GAW "guaranteeing" a price floor of $20 per Paycoin when Paybase launches next week, there's an opportunity to try and cash in on the current sellers. It's a form of arbitrage, albeit with a rather lengthy delay between your purchase and sale. Still, actually sold out of XPY at a price of $20 each, which is interesting as you could buy them for $9-$10 on Coin-swap. Of course you need BTC or some other form of cryptocurrency to make trades there, which might be the issue others are running into.

I don't have a ton of BTC these days, as it's pretty much all in GAW, Hashlets, Paycoin, etc. and I'm thinking about taking my remaining BTC and buying XPY right now. If all goes as planned, I double my money by next week -- Merry Christmas to me! So, why not give it a shot? Worst case, I get to say GAW was a bunch of liars if they can't hold the $20 price.

Something else sort of interesting to note is that the volume of XPY traded at Coin-swap during the past 24 hours is currently 727+ BTC. They charge a 0.5% fee on trades (both sides), so effectively they have made 7.27 BTC off of just the XPY trades in the past 24 hours. The next highest alt-coin is only a fraction of that amount, so by being the first exchange to adopt XPY they have made some nice profits. Good for them, I say -- I wonder if they're holding any XPY in anticipation of the Paybase launch?

Finally, keep in mind that a huge chunk of the existing XPY will be put into HashStakers, Prime Controllers, etc. so even though there will be 12.5 million XPY come Monday, I suspect less than a million XPY could be dumped on Paybase at $20. At one point GAW mentioned having $30 million in reserve to secure the price, so unless there are a lot more XPY dumped than that the price should hold. From there, we'll have to wait and see. At the very least, it should be an exciting ride. :-)

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