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Monday, December 29, 2014

Revisiting Prime Controller Staking: Compounding Interest

I realized today that I made some errors when looking at the stake rate for Prime Controllers. You see, compounding interest starts to do really crazy things with high interest rates. I tried to put together some numbers just for fun.

Let's say you have a Prime Controller with 125000 XPY in it. If a Prime Controller (PC) stakes on average once every six months (at the end of the current round), it will end up with 343750 XPY. This is what I've used as my basis before, and it's basically incorrect. First, we know the PCs have all staked at least once already, but they've also staked at varying interest rates. Anyway, let's just continue for a moment.

If the PC stakes on average once a month (at the end of the month), it will end up with 580514 XPY at the end of the first round. Yeah, what!? Well, that's what happens with 350% interest -- you get 29% interest every month. So if you had 1 XPY with 29% interest monthly, it would be 4.6 XPY by the end of six months. And we're not even done yet. If the PC stakes on average once a week (at the end of the week), it will end up with 679893 XPY at the end of the first round. Daily staking (which obviously isn't happening right now) would yield 713357 XPY at the end of the round.

So yeah, compounding interest on the Prime Controllers can end up paying huge dividends, but that's at 350% interest, and the interest is apparently variable (we'll see how this plays out the next time more Prime Controllers stake). We also don't know how often Prime Controllers will stake. So far all of the Prime Controllers have staked just once, with interest rates of 350% on 36, 100% on 13, and 20% on 3 (according to the block explorer). That means over all the 52 currently listed PCs, right now we're averaging around 268% interest for the Prime Controllers.

If the PCs hold to that average (or let's just call it 250%) and they manage to stake weekly on average, then the 52 Prime Controllers will end up staking to the point where for every 1 XPY put in the Prime Controller, they'll generate 2.39 XPY in six months. Or in other words, 1 XPY in a Prime Controller would average about 0.0131 XPY of staking income daily. So when the staking rate of HashStakers for round one was announced as 0.0972 XPY daily (on average), well, we're apparently well ahead of that mark right now.

Also, we're still waiting for PayBase to fully launch. "You will be able to create your PayBase account soon. Please check back later." In the meantime, the price of PayCoin nearly hit 0.045 BTC (just over $14) before falling back to the $13 range. Considering PayBase isn't even online yet (apparently), that's pretty good and the $20 mark is certainly looking attainable. But I'll have more to say on that in a moment....

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